Guild Wars 2 Shop

Bonjour,

Il y a déjà quelques mois, une discussion avait été ouverte sur ce forum concernant les teintures rares et leurs probabilités.

A l'époque, j'avais émis l'hypothèse que viser un spectre de couleur précis permettait de diminuer la composante RNG d'obtenir des teintures rares et chères dudit spectre (mon exemple portait notamment le spectre de gris) et ce, SI, ET SEULEMENT SI, la table des loot est répartie de manière égale.
Et bien, il s'avère que le 1er point est vérifié et que le second ne l'est pas totalement : la table des loots contenant en effets des pourcentage différents concernant la qualité des teintures (Rare, Uncommon, Common) tout en ayant autant de probabilité d'obtenir une teinture rare en particulier (Céleste - Abyss).

Toute chose est-il qu'étant donné la rareté des retours d'expériences sur ce genre de cas précis, il est intéressant d'observer les résultats du test effectué par un certain mollila.

===============================================================

Unidentified Gray Dye (Rare) is a 400 Chef recipe which gives you a Common, Uncommon, or Rare Dye from the Gray spectrum. This spectrum contains some of the most expensive rare dyes like Abyss, Black, Celestial and White.

By opening 100 dyes I learned what some other posts suggested; the drop rate of rares dyes is far less than equal chance.
Dye Rarity     # Gained     Proc Rate
Rare -------------- 8 -------------- 8%
Uncommon ------ 26 ------------ 26%
Common -------- 66 ------------- 66%

22 out of 28 possible gray dyes hit.

Rare Dyes     # Gained     Sell Price
Abyss Dye --------- 1 ------ 2900.10
Ash Dye  ---------- 0 --------- 64.64
Black Dye --------- 0 ------- 1109.90
Celestial Dye ------ 1 ------- 2199.96
Frost Dye ---------- 0 --------- 59.02
Icing Dye ---------- 0 --------- 119.00
Lead Dye ---------- 2 ---------- 41.85
Midnight Fire Dye -- 2 ---------- 599.95
Night Shade Dye  --- 1 ---------- 69.98
Silver Dye ---------- 0 --------- 120.99
Tarnished Silver Dye - 0 ---------- 41.98
White Dye ---------- 1 -------- 1099.89

Uncommon Dyes     # Gained     Sell Price
Blue Tint Dye  ---------- 2 --------- 11.96
Chalk Dye -------------- 1 --------- 12.00
Graphite Dye ----------- 2 --------- 17.99
Pewter Dye ------------- 6 --------- 94.49
Pitch Dye -------------- 5 -------- 100.00
Steel Dye -------------- 6 --------- 17.19
Violet Tint Dye --------- 4 --------- 11.90

Common Dyes     # Gained     Sell Price
Burnished Steel Dye -- 6 ------ 1.10
Dust Dye ------------ 5 ------ 0.99
Fluff Dye ------------ 6 ------ 0.92
Fog Dye ------------- 5 ------ 5.81
Gray Dye ------------ 8 ------ 1.42
Green Tint Dye ----- 11 ------ 0.94
Iron Dye ----------- 11 ------ 25.00
Silt Dye ------------- 7 ------ 0.94
Silver Lead Dye ------ 7 ------ 0.88

Initial feeling was that I got lucky by getting Abyss, Celestial and White from rares, and both uncommon and common groups hitting the most expensive dye many times. But since the rare dye proc rate was so low at 8%, this experiment resulted in a clear loss.

If we assume I bought all material with buy orders and sold all dyes with sell orders, with current rates the crafting cost would have been 169.50g and sales after 15% tax 78.18g. Resulting in a net loss of 91.32g or ~54% of investment.

Ingredient     Required     Sell Offer     Buy Offer
Walnut  ------------ 25 --------- 0.12 ------- 0.09
Black Bean ------- 100 ---- 196 Karma    
Coriander Seed --- 25 -------- 4.68 ------- 4.17
Orrian Truffle ------ 25 ------ 2.53 ------- 2.52
Crafting Cost ---------------- 183.25 ---- 169.50
   
Total Sell Value  : 9198.67
Total Sell Minus 15% Tax : 7818.87

Now we have established that opening these dyes is a bad idea. In order to get a better idea how bad, I calculated the average sell value of rare, masterwork and fine dyes in the gray color spectrum and multiplied them with my proc rates to get the average value of one dye. After 15% tax the average sell cost of opening one Unidentified Gray Dye (Rare) is 57.46 silver, which is just 31.36% of crafting costs by directly buying the materials or 33.90% by buy orders. In addition each dye uses 100 Black Beans, which cost 196 karma.
Dye     Average Sell Value     Proc Rate     Value Per Unidentified Dye
Rare -------------- 702.27 ---------- 8.00% ---------- 56.18
Masterwork --------- 33.19 --------- 26.00% --------- 8.63
Common -------------- 4.22 -------- 66.00% --------- 2.79
Average Sell Value ------------------------------------- 67.60

TL;DR: Do NOT craft Unindentified Gray Dyes (Rare) for opening them, you will lose on average 66% of your investment.

Screenshots before, during, after:

===============================================================

En conclusion, lors de l'ouverture de teintures non-identifées, les pourcentages sont :
Rare : 8%
Uncommon : 26%
Common : 66%

Et, il est recommandé de ne pas crafter de teintures non-identifées, mais plutôt de les acheter directement, et ce au risque de perdre 66% de son investissement en composants.

Dernière modification par Tree Selectif (27-08-2013 09:54:53)